SMU Election Project-NY

What Happened?

2008-11-07T17:52:00.000-08:00

On November 4, Barack Obama won New York's 31 electoral votes. Obama won 62.14% of votes to John McCain's 36.68%. The total number of votes for Obama was 4363386, while McCain recieved 2576360 votes.

McCain actually won a decent amount of counties, 27 to Obama's 33. New York, Bronx, Queens, Nassau, and Suffolk counties all went for Obama, with New York and Bronx giving Obama over 80% of the vote. This is probably where Obama got a huge chunk of his vote, being that they are very populous counties.

Exit polls done by NY Daily News:
Overall, one in seven voters were under 30. About as many were over 65.
More than a third of voters said they were looking for a candidate who bring change to Washington, compared to one in five who put a greater premium on experience.
Wallet worries eclipsed every other major issue by giant margins in the election of 2008, the polling showed.
Six in 10 voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the nation.
None of four other choices - Iraq, energy, terrorism and health care - was picked by more than one in 10.
Voters worried about their finances were more likely to pick Obama over Republican John McCain.
About half the voters interviewed said the economy is in poor shape and and nearly all the rest said it's not good.
Fifty-seven percent thought Obama is in touch with people like themselves; only 40% said the same of McCain.
About 40% said their family's financial situation has worsened since 2004. Only about a quarter said it's gotten better.
More than half said they opposed the $700 billion government bailout for Wall Street banks.
A third of voters reported household income of less than $50,000; a quarter had more than $100,000.
One in five had only a high school diploma; nearly half had a college degree.
One in four voters was a white born-again evangelical Christian.
Nearly half of voters have a gun in their household.

New York Governor Worries Obama will Forget about New York

2008-11-04T10:34:00.000-08:00

New York Gov. David Patterson, a big supporter of Obama, fears that if the presidential nominee becomes president, he will neglect New York's fiscal needs.

"If he's president and he know he can always depend on winning New York, we may have the same problems with him that we had with President Clinton. Clinton raised all this money in New York and then went down to Washington. We didn't see any change in reimbursement rate from Washington while he was president." said Patterson on Monday.

The governor claims that Democratic contenders have a history of collecting contributions and electoral votes from New York, then ignoring the state's struggles once elected because it's a reliably blue state.

"Let the Issues Be the Issues"

2008-11-04T10:27:00.000-08:00

Global Ad Agency, Grey New York, released an image yesterday reminding voters to "Let the issues be the issues" as they go to the polls on election day.

The image features the two presidential candidates with their skin colors switched.

Grey New York's Cheif Creative Officer, Tor Myhren, said, "This is a non-partisan image. We wanted to address the race issue straight on and it cuts both ways. If you're hopping on either candidate's bandwagon solely due to the color of their skin, you're voting for the wrong reason."

The picture is being run in newspapers, outdoor posters, and online.

Also interesting, several public schools around the country are building lesson plans around the image.

1 Day to Go!!!

2008-11-03T15:02:00.000-08:00

There has never been any question which way New York will go and with one day left until the election, I think it is very safe to call it for Obama.

New York has not voted for a Republican since voting for Reagan in 1984. Polling clearly shows Obama with a strong lead. Pollster.com has Obama with 60.5 % to McCain's 34.3%.

Neither candidate has even bothered to campaign here because it has been clear from the beginning which way it would go. It would be pointless to spend time, effort, and money on a state that has been so historically blue and continues to go in that direction.

With that said, New York's 31 electoral votes will go to Obama.

Live from New York...it's John McCain!

2008-11-03T14:57:00.001-08:00

(AP) John McCain has gotten a chance to poke fun at his campaign's financial shortcomings on NBC's "Saturday Night Live." McCain appeared with Tina Fey, once again doing her impression of sarah palin, as they tried to sell merchandise on the QVC shopping network.

Bloomberg Not Endorsing Presidential Candidate

2008-10-30T21:58:00.000-07:00

When New York mayor Michael Bloomberg announced in February that he was not going to run for President, he said he was willing to help any candidate that "takes an independent, nonpartisan approach and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy."

However on Tuesday, Bloomberg said neither McCain nor Obama had fully shown that nonpartisan, pragmatic tone "as much as I would like."

"I think both of them have given the public an understanding of who they are, but I don't think you can say that either has given the public concrete answers to what they would do," Bloomberg said.

Bloomberg has put his money behind a candidate every year since 1990.

New York Senate Battle

2008-10-24T16:58:00.000-07:00

The New York Senate battle has never been so hot or so significant! Republicans are trying to hold back Democrats as Senate races are getting tighter in New York.

The Republicans plan: defend incumbents, win an open in Western New York and go after a few vulnerable Democratic lawmakers

The Democratic plan: beat some long-serving Republicans, win Western New York and keep their senators in office

While the assembly will stay Democratic, Republicans can claim the Senate-- they are hanging on to a 31-29-seat edge in the Senate, and there are more than a half dozen races in the state that will determine whether the chamber changes hands.

To read about all of the races in New York, click here.

New York Times endorses Obama...suprise suprise

2008-10-24T16:42:00.000-07:00

The New York Times endorsed Barack Obamafor president on Thursday, saying he had "met challenge after challenge, growing as a leader and putting real flesh on his early promises of hope and change."

It is interesting is to look at how the media changes their opinion to fit what is going on at the time. During the primaries, the Times endorsed Clinton and McCain.

Here are some comments from their endorsement of Clinton...
"By choosing Mrs. Clinton, we are not denying Mr. Obama's appeal or his gifts ... Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton would both help restore America's global image, to which President Bush has done so much grievous harm," the paper said in its endorsement. "The potential upside of a great Obama presidency is enticing, but this country faces huge problems, and will no doubt be facing more that we can't foresee. The next president needs to start immediately on challenges that will require concrete solutions, resolve, and the ability to make government work. Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president."

Here are comments from the endorsement of McCain:
Still, there is a choice to be made, and it is an easy one. Senator John McCain of Arizona is the only Republican who promises to end the George Bush style of governing from and on behalf of a small, angry fringe. With a record of working across the aisle to develop sound bipartisan legislation, he would offer a choice to a broader range of Americans than the rest of the Republican field," the endorsement said.

Funny coming from a paper that is so pro-Obama and anti-McCain.

In response to their endorsement of Clinton, the Times said, "He has drawn in legions of new voters with powerful messages of hope and possibility and calls for shared sacrifice and social responsibility," the Times said. "He has shown a cool head and sound judgment. We believe he has the will and the ability to forge the broad political consensus that is essential to finding solutions to this nation's problems."

In response to McCain? "Mr. McCain, whom we chose as the best Republican nominee in the primaries, has spent the last coins of his reputation for principle and sound judgment to placate the limitless demands and narrow vision of the far-right wing."

10 Days to Go!

2008-10-24T08:30:00.000-07:00

With ten days to go, it is safe to say that New York will go to Obama. There has never been any question which will New York will go. Despite a few polls post-RNC saying Obama's lead was tigthening, Obama has had a huge lead over McCain throughout the election process. According to pollster.com, right now Obama leads with 57.7 percent to McCain's 36.6 percent. New York has always been a very liberal state. In fact, it has not voted for a Republican president since 1984, when they voted in Reagan. Neither side has done much campaigning in New York, because it has been evident who will win.

Will Bloomberg Get a Third Term?

2008-10-22T19:47:00.000-07:00

While New Yorkers voted to enfore term limits on elected city officials, the New York City Council will still vote on whether to set aside the people's vote and rid New York of the term limits law.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing whatever humanly possibly in an attempt to get council members to back his bid for a third term in office.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 87 percent of New Yorkers say the issue should be voted on by the general population. However, the vote has been called for Thursday by the Council Speaker, Christine Quinn. It seems unlikely she would call for a vote if the Mayor didn't have enough people behind him.

New York Times Blasts Cindy McCain

2008-10-22T14:51:00.000-07:00

On October 18, the New York Times published a mean-spirited piece blasting Cindy McCain for her past drug use and examining her her marriage and personal challenges as the wife of Mr. McCain. This highly controversial article has been criticised by Republicans and Democrats alike. It is an intertesting question as to whether we should look into the lives of the families of candidates and whether this kind of information effects voters.

McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb, released a statement about the article. Here is part of it:

"Today the New York Times launched yet another in a series of vicious attacks on Senator John McCain, this time targeting not the candidate, but his wife Cindy. Under the guise of a 'profile' piece, the New York Times fails to cover any new ground or provide any discernible value to the reader other than to portray Mrs. McCain in the worst possible light. Though Mrs. McCain's battle with drug addiction and even her miscarriages are again reported, the paper entirely ignores a life devoted to family and charity work in the most impoverished and violent corners of the world -- except when a detail can be quibbled with so as to imply some kind of deceit. This campaign made every effort to share personal accounts of Mrs. McCain's good works with the paper, but apparently they were deemed unfit for publication in the New York Times."

Cindy McCain was interviewed by Fow News' Greta Van Susteren. Here is a little snippet of the interview, regarding the article:

VAN SUSTEREN: Is there anything that's been a stunner to you in terms of going out and talking across the country (INAUDIBLE) you felt like, you know, you had no idea or, This is better or worse than I thought? Anything stun you?
MCCAIN: You know what has really stunned me is the -- quite honestly, is the kind of viciousness of the media on occasion. In 2000 -- there certainly's always been, you know, differences, and the -- you know, the things that occur. But this has taken on a different tenor. And I don't know why and what's caused that, and I'm sorry for it because I think it turns a lot of young people off.
VAN SUSTEREN: Well, you mentioned viciousness. Of course, you know, we've been talking for the last couple of days about the New York Times article...
MCCAIN: Yes.
VAN SUSTEREN: ... took a whack at you over the weekend. Do you pay attention to this stuff? Do you read this stuff?
MCCAIN: I did not read it, no. I did not read it, and I have no intention of reading it.
VAN SUSTEREN: But you know about it.
MCCAIN: Oh, yes, I'm aware of it. I'm aware of it. And I have -- I mean, my BlackBerry was loaded with friends the next morning saying, I cannot believe this, you know? I'm sorry for you and all this.
Look, this is politics today, unfortunately. I'm not -- it's -- I don't -- I'm not saying it's right. But it is politics today and it seems to be the nature of the beast now. All I can say is that my husband and I are doing the best we can. We are truly very proud to be here and proud to be a part of this process. And I don't really care what The New York Times thinks.

Obama's lead continues to grow

2008-10-19T20:58:00.000-07:00

The latest poll results from pollster.com:

Obama: 57.7 percent

McCain: 36.6 percent

While Obama's lead continues to grow, McCain's numbers are continuing to dwindle.

Democrats Gaining in New York

2008-10-12T17:05:00.000-07:00

Some longtime Republican strongholds in New York are becoming increasingly Democratic, according to the New York Times.

The cause? Demographic shifts, intense voter registration by Democrats, allied groups and sagging Republican fortunes.

According to the State Board of Elections, registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans by 5.5 million to 3.2 million, with unaffiliated voters at 2.4 million.

Republicans are even falling behing in Long island where Nassau County — once home to the most formidable Republican machine in the country — reported this week, for the first time in its history, having more registered Democrats than Republicans.

This could mean trouble in November's election, when Republicans will try keep it's one seat majority in the state senate.

New Yorkers vote for Barack Osama?

2008-10-12T16:54:00.000-07:00

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's last name is spelled "Osama" on hundreds of absentee ballots in New York State, issued in in Rensselaer County.

The "Times Union" says they were mailed to about 300 voters. The Democratic election commissioner has apologized, calling it a terrible mistake. A Republican commissioner says somehow the typo got past three editors.

One annoymous voter called the situation, "a little suspicious and at least grossly incompetent."

The Rensselaer County Legislature is putting forth an investigation into the incident.

Bloomberg Taking Sides?

2008-09-16T09:29:00.000-07:00

New York Mayer Michael Bloomberg agreed with John McCain's comment that, "while times are very, very difficult, the fundamentals of the economy remain strong in spite of Wall Street's woes."

An Obama aid called the first part of McCain's sentance an "enormous mistake," and said the campaign will seek to amplify the comment through surrogates, principles, and maybe even television ads.

However, it does seem McCain has Bloomberg on his side.

Bloomberg has spoken with both McCain and Obama, but has refused to endorse either one.

Read Mayor Bloomberg's comments:

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/09/bloomberg-sides-with-mccain-on.html

New York going......Red?!?

2008-09-16T09:03:00.000-07:00

Could it be? According to Newsday, a new poll taken by the Dowling Polling Institute data, shows that McCain has a slight lead on Obama in Long Island and is only slightly behind him statewide.

To read the article, go to this link:

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/ny-stpoll0916,0,964790.story

Another Interesting Article on the topic from NY Daily News:

Polls Show Barack Obama's Lead Over John McCain in New York Falling

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/09/15/2008-09-15_poll_shows_barack_obamas_lead_over_john.html

Despite this recent polling, I would still call New York an Obama state. Polling is not the determining factor and most polls are still in favor of Obama anyway. Plus New York has always been a very liberal state. It hasn't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan took it in 1984.

It will be interesting to see, however, if there is more Republican turn-out than expected.

With 50 Days to Go, New York looking Good for Obama!

2008-09-14T17:43:00.000-07:00

With 50 days until the election, New York is leaning strongly towards Obama. According to Pollster.com, Obama has a lead of 52.5% over McCain’s 33%. The past four elections have all gone democrat by a significant percentage. The results are as follows:

Past Elections: 2004: Kerry: 58%
Bush: 41%

2000: Gore: 60%
Bush: 35%

1996: Clinton: 62%
Dole: 30%

1992: Clinton: 47%
Bush: 29%

New York just elected a new governor, David Paterson, a democrat. Both of their senators, Charles Schumer and Hilary Rodham Clinton, are democrats. They have 23 democrat representatives and 6 republican representatives.

Below are statistics about the people of New York and their economy:
Race/Ethnic Origin: White 11,760,981 (62.0%); Black 2,812,623 (14.8%); Asian 1,035,926 (5.5%); Native Am. 52,499 (0.3%); Hawaiian 5,230 (0.0%); Two+ races 366,116 (1.9%); Other 75,499 (0.4%); Hisp. Origin 2,867,583 (15.1%)
Education:79.1%% H.S. Grad:; 27.4%% College Grad:
Military Veterans: 1,361,164 (9.5%); WWII: 25.4%; Korea:15.5%; Vietnam: 27.7%; Gulf War:7.1%

Industry: Agriculture: 0.6%; Construction: 5.2%; Finance: 8.8%; Information: 4.1%; Manufacturing: 15.5%; Professional: 34.5%; Public Administration: 5.2%; Trade: 13.8%; Other: 12.3%
Work Force:
Work Sector: Private:76.8%; Govt:17.0%; Self:6.0%; Family:0.2%; Unemployment:7.1%
Median Household Income: $43,393
14.6% are below the poverty line
17.9% less than $15,000
23.1% $15-35,000
14.8% $35-50,000
29.0% $50-100,000
9.1% $100-150,000
6.2% more than $150,000
Median Home Value: $147,600
9.1% less than $50,000
25.3% $50-100,000
32.0% $100-200,000
18.5% $200-300,000
10.0% $300-500,000
5.1% more than $500,000

Key issues for voters in New York include environment and the economy.

New York has 31 electoral votes.